Claim: Brexit would rapidly unlock opportunities for British farmers (2019–2020)
Summary of the Claim
As a Brexit Party MEP in 2019–2020, Rupert Lowe repeatedly argued that leaving the European Union would rapidly create new opportunities for British farmers. His commentary suggested that Brexit would quickly remove burdensome EU regulations, expand UK export markets, increase competitiveness and give farmers new freedom to innovate.
This fact-check assesses how those claims compare with the outcomes seen after the UK left the EU single market and customs union.
Where the Claim Was Made
Lowe made these statements during speeches in the European Parliament, media interviews and Brexit Party campaign events. The framing emphasised immediate, tangible benefits for British agriculture. He asserted that:
- EU regulations were holding farmers back
- Brexit would deliver rapid growth in markets outside Europe
- UK farming would be more profitable once free of EU structures
The key word was rapidly — implying a near-term boost rather than a gradual or uncertain shift.
Verdict: ⚠️ Misleading
The outcomes for British farming after Brexit have been mixed, sector-specific and far slower to materialise than Lowe suggested. Some opportunities have begun to appear, such as potential export openings and new domestic policies, but farmers also faced:
- increased border friction
- reduced access to EU markets
- labour shortages
- higher costs
- subsidy uncertainty during the transition out of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)
Because the benefits did not arrive rapidly, and because many challenges offset potential gains, the claim is rated ⚠️ Misleading.
Evidence and Analysis
1. EU trade barriers increased, not decreased
Lowe’s argument assumed that leaving the EU would improve market access. Instead, new barriers emerged.
From 1 January 2021, UK agri-food exports faced:
- veterinary certification requirements
- sanitary and phytosanitary checks
- export health certificates
- customs declarations
- higher administrative costs
This caused delays and reduced the competitiveness of perishable goods.
The UK Government’s own impact assessment acknowledged that leaving the single market would “introduce friction” into UK–EU agri-food trade.
2. Farmers experienced export losses in key sectors
Sheep and lamb
The EU is the UK’s largest lamb market. Post-Brexit checks increased delivery times and costs, reducing margins for farmers exporting to France, Ireland, Belgium and Germany.
Dairy and cheese exports
Cheese exports to the EU dropped in the first years after Brexit. Added paperwork and certification slowed shipments and damaged predictability for producers.
Seed potatoes and plant material
The EU banned imports of UK seed potatoes after Brexit because the UK became a “third country.” This ended a valuable export market overnight.
These outcomes contradict predictions of rapid export expansion.
3. Labour shortages hit farm profitability
Many UK farms relied heavily on seasonal EU labour. After freedom of movement ended, recruitment became more difficult. The NFU reported:
- unharvested crops due to worker shortages
- large financial losses for horticulture businesses
- increased reliance on costly visa programmes
These pressures reduced profitability rather than boosting it.
4. Rising input costs limited opportunities
Farmers faced rising prices for:
- fertiliser
- feed
- fuel
- machinery
- transportation
Some cost increases were global, but added border friction and currency effects also contributed.
The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) reported higher operational costs across multiple farm types in the immediate post-Brexit period.
Increased costs constrained investment and undermined claims of rapid opportunity growth.
5. CAP replacement created uncertainty
Lowe argued that replacing the Common Agricultural Policy would free farmers from bureaucracy. However, the UK’s new farm subsidy framework (Environmental Land Management Schemes) was still being phased in during 2021–2023.
Farmers reported:
- uncertainty about future payments
- confusion over new environmental rules
- financial gaps between old CAP support and new schemes
Without financial certainty, it was difficult for farms to expand or invest.
6. Opportunities did exist — but not rapidly
Brexit created potential opportunities in areas such as:
- food labelling reforms
- domestic procurement rules
- new trade deals with non-EU countries
- bespoke agricultural policy
However, most of these changes were long-term and required years to implement.
For example, the Australia and New Zealand trade deals offered new export pathways, but also introduced competition concerns for British livestock producers.
The opportunities were therefore neither rapid nor universally positive.
Conclusion
Rupert Lowe’s claim that Brexit would rapidly unlock opportunities for British farmers is misleading. While Brexit created the potential for new policies and future export openings, the early years brought significant friction and challenges:
- increased trade barriers with Europe
- labour shortages
- rising input costs
- uncertain subsidy arrangements
- loss of key export markets in some sectors
Some opportunities may still emerge over the long term, but the “rapid boost” he predicted did not occur, and in many cases the immediate effects were negative. The evidence shows outcomes were mixed, sector-dependent and slow to develop.
The claim is therefore rated ⚠️ Misleading.
Sources
- UK Government – The UK’s Approach to Negotiations
- UK Government – Seed Potato Export Notice
- AHDB – Agri-Market Analysis
- National Audit Office – Environmental Land Management Schemes
- UK Parliament – Trade and Agriculture Commission