Claim: GB News claims about “runaway” immigration levels
Summary of the Claim
During several appearances on GB News, Rupert Lowe described immigration to the United Kingdom as “out of control” and implied that official statistics did not reflect the true scale of arrivals. The language used suggested that immigration levels were far higher than the figures published by bodies such as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Home Office.
This fact check looks at how accurate those claims are when set against the best available data for 2022 and the subsequent revisions to net migration figures.
Where the Claim Was Made
Lowe has repeatedly used phrases such as “immigration is out of control” in broadcast interviews and clips shared on social media. For example, in one GB News segment he argued that immigration was “out of control and damaging Britain,” presenting the situation as evidence that the system had fundamentally broken down.
In other public remarks he has linked “out of control” immigration to pressure on public services and the welfare system, reinforcing a picture of a crisis that is worse than the official numbers suggest.
While some of these statements are framed as opinion, the repeated suggestion that real numbers are far above government figures gives the claim a factual edge that can be tested.
Verdict: ⚠️ Misleading
Immigration to the UK did reach historically high levels in 2022. Net migration figures for that year were revised upwards several times, and there is genuine uncertainty around the exact number. However, the best available evidence still comes from official data produced by the ONS and reviewed by independent experts. There is no support for the suggestion that migration is many times higher than these figures, or that the authorities have essentially lost the ability to measure it.
The claim is therefore rated as misleading. It starts from a real fact – that net migration has been historically high – but exaggerates the degree of loss of control and implies that official data are fundamentally unreliable.
Evidence and Analysis
1. What the official figures show for 2022
In May 2023 the ONS reported that in calendar year 2022 long term immigration was around 1.2 million and emigration was about 557,000, giving a net migration estimate of 606,000.
Later work using improved methods and more data led to upward revisions. By 2025 the Migration Advisory Committee and the government’s net migration report noted that the estimate for 2022 had been revised up in stages, ending at around 872,000.
These revisions show that measuring migration is complex, especially after changes to the visa system and the inclusion of more detailed information on asylum. But they also show that the system is capable of updating and correcting itself over time. That is not evidence of hidden, vastly higher numbers. It is evidence of a statistical process working as intended.
2. Context from independent experts
Independent groups such as the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford have described 2022 and 2023 as years of unusually high net migration by historical standards. Their briefing on net migration notes the sharp rise after 2021 and the role of non EU migration for work, study and humanitarian routes in driving the increase.
The same sources also underline an important point. High does not mean unmeasured. The trends are visible precisely because they are being recorded in detail by the ONS and made available to the public.
3. How “out of control” claims compare to the data
Describing immigration as “out of control” is a political judgement, but Lowe has often paired that language with the idea that official figures do not tell the full story. The evidence does not back up the suggestion that actual levels are far beyond those reported.
The ONS publishes detailed quarterly and annual releases on immigration, asylum and related trends, including breakdowns by visa type, nationality and purpose of stay. These figures are scrutinised by Parliament, external statisticians and independent commentators. When revisions are needed, they are published openly, as happened with the 2022 numbers.
There is no credible research showing that the real numbers are dramatically higher than the revised ONS estimates. Instead, the main debate among experts is about what level of net migration is desirable, not whether the data itself is wildly wrong.
4. Channel crossings and asylum numbers
Part of the “runaway” narrative draws on images of people crossing the Channel in small boats or staying in hotels while claims are processed. These are real and visible issues. Home Office and media reporting show that small boat arrivals have risen since 2018, peaking around 2022.
However, asylum seekers and small boat arrivals still account for only a portion of overall migration. They are included in updated ONS figures, and they do not explain the entire rise in net migration. A large share of the increase is driven by people coming on work and study visas and on specific schemes such as those for people from Ukraine and Hong Kong.
Leaving these details out creates a distorted picture in which a single route appears to represent the whole system.
5. Revisions and uncertainty do not equal “unknown” numbers
It is true that the headline figure for 2022 changed significantly between early and later estimates. The MAC report notes that the final estimate was about 44 percent higher than the initial one.
That is a significant revision, but it happened in public, with explanations of methods and limitations. Experts agree that even revised numbers carry uncertainty ranges, but there is no evidence that the true figure is several times higher again or that the system has no idea what is happening.
When politicians translate this statistical uncertainty into claims that immigration is essentially unmeasured, they overstate what the data actually shows.
Conclusion
Rupert Lowe is correct that immigration levels in 2022 were historically high, and it is reasonable to debate whether those levels are appropriate. However, portraying immigration as fundamentally “out of control,” and suggesting that actual numbers are far higher than official figures, goes beyond the evidence.
The ONS, the Migration Advisory Committee and independent experts all acknowledge uncertainty and the need for revisions, but none argue that the true level is vastly greater than the published figures. The data shows a large and measurable increase in net migration, not a complete loss of control.
The claim is therefore rated ⚠️ Misleading. It is rooted in a real trend but exaggerates both the level of uncertainty and the idea that the official statistics cannot be trusted.
Sources
- Office for National Statistics – “International migration hits new high in 2022 but there are signs of change”
- ONS – “Long term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2022” (statistical release and data tables)
- Migration Advisory Committee – “Net migration report” (discussion of 2022 revisions and final estimates)
- Migration Observatory, University of Oxford – “Net migration to the UK” and commentary on revised 2022 figures
- House of Commons Library – “Migration statistics” briefing
- GB News and related clips featuring Rupert Lowe describing immigration as “out of control”