Claim: Reform UK relaunch messaging on economic decline
Summary of the Claim
During Reform UK’s relaunch messaging in 2022, Rupert Lowe made a series of broad statements suggesting that Britain was in “economic freefall” because of government decisions. The picture painted was of an economy collapsing as a result of high taxes, mismanagement and excessive public spending, with the implication that the UK was on the brink of economic ruin rather than experiencing a difficult but recognisable downturn.
This fact check looks at how those claims compare with the best available economic evidence from 2022 and asks whether “economic freefall” is a fair description.
Where the Claim Was Made
Lowe’s “economic freefall” line fits within Reform UK’s wider narrative that Britain is being badly run and is in steep decline. Commentaries and profiles of Reform UK have noted the party’s focus on high taxes, slow growth and a sense of national economic crisis as key parts of its relaunch message.
However, the specific phrasing of “economic freefall” is used as a piece of political rhetoric rather than a technical description. It is not tied to a particular threshold for GDP, unemployment, inflation, or debt. As a result, it is hard to test as a factual claim.
Verdict: ℹ️ Lacks Evidence
The claim is too vague to verify. “Economic freefall” is not an established economic term with a clear statistical meaning. When we look at 2022 data on GDP, unemployment, inflation and living standards, the UK economy was under serious pressure and entered a mild recession, but it was not experiencing a sudden, uncontrolled collapse.
Because Lowe’s statements do not set out measurable criteria and because the available data shows a difficult but recognisable downturn rather than a total freefall, the claim is rated Lacks Evidence.
Evidence and Analysis
1. What was happening to GDP in 2022?
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that the UK economy in 2022 was recovering from the pandemic but hit by new shocks.
The OBR’s November 2022 Economic and Fiscal Outlook forecast that the UK would enter a recession from the third quarter of 2022, with a peak to trough fall in GDP of around 2 percent.
A 2 percent peak to trough decline and a recession are serious, but they are not unprecedented. By comparison, GDP fell by more than 20 percent at the height of the Covid lockdowns in 2020 and by over 6 percent during the 2008–09 financial crisis. Describing the 2022 downturn as “freefall” therefore exaggerates its scale when set against recent economic history.
2. Inflation did hit a historic high
Inflation in 2022 was extremely high by modern UK standards. ONS figures show that the Consumer Prices Index rose by 11.1 percent in the 12 months to October 2022, the highest annual rate in more than 40 years.
This surge in prices created a major cost of living crisis. The House of Commons Library notes that inflation peaking at 11.1 percent in October 2022 represented a 41 year high. The OBR projected that, as a result of high inflation and weak growth, real household disposable income per person would fall by around 7 percent over 2022–23 and 2023–24 combined, the largest two year drop in living standards on record.
These are very serious problems. But high inflation and falling real incomes, while deeply painful, do not by themselves demonstrate that the entire economy is in uncontrolled collapse. They are part of a severe squeeze, not evidence that the UK has stopped functioning as an economy.
3. Unemployment was low, not soaring
One of the clearest signs of an economy in genuine freefall is a rapid spike in unemployment. The data for 2022 show the opposite.
ONS figures for July to September 2022 show an employment rate of 75.5 percent and an unemployment rate of just 3.6 percent. That is near historic lows, not the kind of mass joblessness associated with an economic collapse.
The Resolution Foundation’s Labour Market Outlook for early 2022 also described the labour market as “tight”, noting that unemployment had fallen further and stood at an almost record low of 3.9 percent in the first months of the year.
In a true economic freefall, one would expect surging unemployment, widespread firm closures and severe difficulty finding work. That is not what the data show for 2022.
4. Independent experts described a severe squeeze, not a total collapse
Independent think tanks painted a picture of a tough period rather than a complete breakdown.
The Resolution Foundation’s Living Standards Outlook 2022 described the UK as facing a deep living standards downturn following the pandemic, even as GDP itself had largely recovered. Their work highlighted a combination of low productivity growth and high inequality, which left many households exposed to the inflation shock.
The OBR, meanwhile, talked about a recession, falling incomes and a worsened fiscal outlook, but did not characterise events as a collapse. Its overview stated that rising energy prices, inflation and interest rates had “taken the wind out of” a fragile recovery and tipped the economy into a relatively shallow recession, not an uncontrolled fall.
These assessments show serious structural problems. They do not support the notion that the economy was in freefall.
5. Why the claim lacks evidence
Lowe’s “economic freefall” framing does not:
- specify what scale of GDP fall would count as freefall
- define what unemployment rate would qualify
- set out any threshold for inflation or public debt
- tie the phrase to clear, concrete metrics that can be checked against data
Because of this, it functions as a political slogan rather than a factual statement. When we compare it to the evidence, 2022 looks like a period of high inflation, falling living standards and a mild recession, with low unemployment and a still-functioning financial system. That is a serious economic squeeze, but it is not the kind of systemic collapse or uncontrolled downward spiral that “freefall” implies.
Conclusion
The UK economy in 2022 faced genuine and serious challenges. Inflation reached its highest level in more than 40 years, the OBR forecast the largest fall in living standards on record, and the country entered a shallow recession. It is entirely legitimate to criticise government decisions and to argue that policy mistakes made these problems worse.
However, describing this situation as “economic freefall” overstates what the data show. GDP did not collapse on the scale seen in past crises, unemployment remained historically low, and independent institutions did not portray the economy as being in a state of uncontrollable decline.
Because the claim is vague, lacks measurable criteria and goes beyond what the evidence supports, it is rated ℹ️ Lacks Evidence.
Sources
- Office for Budget Responsibility, “Overview of the November 2022 Economic and Fiscal Outlook”
- OBR, “Economic and Fiscal Outlook – November 2022” (full report)
- Office for National Statistics, “Consumer price inflation, UK: October 2022”
- House of Commons Library, “Rising cost of living in the UK”
- ONS, “Employment in the UK: November 2022”
- Resolution Foundation, “The Living Standards Outlook 2022” and “Living Standards Audit 2022”
- Resolution Foundation, “Labour Market Outlook, Q1 2022”
- HOPE not hate, “Reform UK: What You Need to Know” (context on Reform UK messaging)